Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Seth Finkelstein's avatar

I'm not sure about some of the inferences you derive in this post. In your rollercoaster example, you made a very reasonable assumption ("sections are empty because they’re not in use"), but it turned out to be incorrect. However, it seems to me it was very likely to be correct, and investigating whether it was false would in most cases be a waste of effort (contra "For half an hour, we hadn’t actually been trying.").

"But we didn't see anyone join us, even though they were within earshot."

Are you sure they were paying attention? Note, you didn't think to shout the information to people to make sure they were aware of it.

"What the hell was that?"

An assumption that would usually be true but just happened to be false here, hence the story? If it were true, there'd be no inspiring story.

The flaw here is that it costs too much time and energy to investigate *EVERY POSSIBLE* assumption, where the vast majority will be correct.

I've often thought the dog experiment is just a horrible moralizing distortion. Being defensive when in pain and escape hasn't worked before, is the *correct* *action* for an animal.

This is getting long, so let me just suggest taking into account more of the problems of "expected value" and being cautious of "survivorship bias".

https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1827:_Survivorship_Bias

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts